Bayesian Methods

Conjugate priors, MCMC, Stan, hierarchical models, Bayesian computation.
TUTORIALS

Bayesian Methods

Conjugate priors, MCMC, Stan, hierarchical models, Bayesian computation.

Bayesian Estimation in Common-Value Auctions and the Winner’s Curse

bayesian-methods
auction-theory

Model common-value auctions with noisy signals, derive optimal bids accounting for the winner’s curse, and simulate the devastating effect of naive bidding on expected profits.

May 8, 2026

Optimal reserve prices in auctions — Myerson’s revenue-maximising design

bayesian-methods
auction-design
reserve-prices
myerson

Derive Myerson’s optimal reserve price for sealed-bid auctions, implement revenue comparisons across uniform and non-uniform value distributions, and visualize the revenue gains from optimal auction design in R.

May 8, 2026

Bayesian games — strategic interaction under incomplete information

bayesian-methods
bayesian-games
incomplete-information
bayes-nash

Formalise games of incomplete information in R, compute Bayes-Nash equilibria for type-dependent strategies, and visualize how private information shapes equilibrium behaviour.

May 8, 2026

Global games and coordination under private information

bayesian-methods
global-games
coordination
incomplete-information

Implement the Carlsson-van Damme and Morris-Shin global games framework in R, showing how private noisy signals about fundamentals resolve equilibrium multiplicity in coordination games through threshold strategies.

May 8, 2026

Bayesian persuasion and information design

bayesian-methods
information-design
bayesian-persuasion
signalling

Implement the Kamenica-Gentzkow (2011) Bayesian persuasion model in R, computing optimal signal structures via concavification for the binary-state prosecutor-judge example.

May 8, 2026
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